A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.
There’s no doubting it now – Credit Suisse has made the banking crisis global and, in classic financial crisis mode, investors are rushing for the global safe havens of the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and Japanese yen.
A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.
There’s no doubting it now – Credit Suisse has made the banking crisis global and, in classic financial crisis mode, investors are rushing for the global safe havens of the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and Japanese yen.
Asian markets are likely to open under severe pressure on Thursday, even though Wall Street closed off its lows – the Nasdaq even ended up slightly – after the Swiss National Bank said it would provide Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) liquidity “if necessary.”
Even if a full resolution for Credit Suisse is announced and markets surge in a relief rally on Thursday, financial crises are not resolved in a few days. Remember, Bear Stearns was rescued in March 2008, oil rose to a record high and the ECB raised rates that July, and Lehman wasn’t until September.
Debate is intensifying on the roots of the banking crisis – solvency, liquidity or asset quality? – regulatory blind spots, the U.S. and Swiss response so far, what more regulators need to do, and the impact on growth and monetary policy going forward.
But ultimately, the banking system and markets rely on confidence. If that goes – and it can disappear very quickly – it can take a long time to recover.
Amid so much uncertainty, investors won’t stray too far from the safety of the dollar, Treasuries and the yen, and the top-rated collateral of U.S. bills. The aforementioned Asian economic indicators could offer brief distraction, but it will likely be just that – brief.
Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:
– ECB policy meeting
– Indonesia interest rate decision
– Japan trade (February)
Source : Reuters
